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2016 Forecast

2016 Forecast

The world will be a dangerous place in 2016.

In the middle of a Presidential campaign, the US will have to grapple with the rise of ISIS, difficult relations with Russia and an increasingly assertive China.

Meanwhile, the EU is caught between several crises including that of migration, Greece’s weak economy and Russian aggression in Ukraine. These issues have exacerbated the internal divisions afflicting the Union, which is finding it progressively more difficult to achieve consensus.

Russia’s foreign policy adventurism continues as it seeks to ensure its influence in its Near Abroad while also meddling in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Russian economy remains stagnant.

China’s economy is growing, although at a more measured pace. On the other hand, Beijing is slowly coming to terms with its emergence as a truly influential global power.

As the Middle East reels from the effects of a bitter geopolitical rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, ISIS continues to threaten the stability of states in the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa and poses an existential threat to Syria and Iraq.

This forecast will provide insights into these areas and others that we believe will be of interest in 2016.