Chinese authorities release a raft of economic data today, including GDP growth, industrial output and retail sales. Economists polled by Reuters expect
Chinese authorities release a raft of economic data today, including GDP growth, industrial output and retail sales.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the economy grew 1.7% between April and June—an annualised rate of 6.8%. This would fall more-or-less in line with the IMF’s forecast of 6.7% and above the government’s target of 6.5%.
These stronger-than-expected figures come amid the introduction of policies to reduce debt levels (and, by extension, investment), as well as property controls to subdue a potential bubble.
Information technology was by far the fastest growing sector in the first quarter, a trend that’s expected to have continued in the second—the National Bureau of Statistics will release a breakdown of growth by industry on Tuesday.
Reflecting the increased importance of technology, Beijing announced on Friday that it would reform the way it measures the size of the economy. The changes add the health, tourism and “emerging” sectors to the GDP calculation—the latter of which refers to the high-tech industry. While this new method isn’t expected to impact today’s figures, it further highlights China’s shift towards high-tech, value added manufacturing.
Expect local stock markets and global commodity prices to rally if figures beat expectations.