The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will hold its November board of governors meeting today, where it’s expected to recertify
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will hold its November board of governors meeting today, where it’s expected to recertify Iran’s compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal.
The return of harsher US sanctions has had a negative economic impact on Iran; they have not led to a renewed expansion of its nuclear programme. While the latest IAEA inspections were carried out before the return of sanctions, compliance signals that Tehran and the EU continue to see the benefits of the agreement outweighing major economic costs.
However, IAEA certification is also a challenge to the position of the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia, which claim that Iran is not complying with the “spirit of the deal”. For Brussels, recertification legitimises its attempt to salvage the agreement by implementing a mechanism where European companies can legally circumvent US financial sanctions.
While recertification is likely to be dismissed by the US and stalwart anti-Iranian countries in the Middle East, the agreement will continue to be implemented by Iran at the technical level, at least in the medium-term. However, if sanctions increase, compliance might be harder for Tehran to sell domestically.
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