Lebanon celebrates Liberation and Resistance Day today, a public holiday commemorating the withdrawal of Israeli forces. Photo: Supriya Kandwal

Lebanon will celebrate Liberation and Resistance Day today. The public holiday  commemorates the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory following decades of war.

Israel-Lebanon relations remain dire, with minor border conflicts commonplace. Last month, in retaliation for Hezbollah strikes on Israeli territory, Israel fired missiles into southern Lebanon. Recent Hezbollah activity on southern demarcated zones—prior to the anniversary of Israel’s exit —was their largest demonstration of force in years. Recent Jewish protest in Jerusalem and unrest in the Gaza strip have further intensified Hezbollah animosity towards Israel.

It is highly likely Hezbollah fighters will proceed with another low risk military show today, along with citizen support, on bordering territory. Anticipate Israel to follow suit with ground troop and drone surveillance on contested borders where civilian protest and military strength is expected.

Despite last year’s successful efforts to demarcate Israeli and Lebanese Exclusive Economic Zones in the Mediterranean, cross-border conflict will continue for the foreseeable future given Hezbollah holds seats in parliament under the Shiite Muslim party. Domestic support for the militant group continues to grow following their supply chain assistance during Lebanon’s economic collapse.