Today, the five candidates running for Mexico’s presidency will face off on the debate floor for the second time. Held
Today, the five candidates running for Mexico’s presidency will face off on the debate floor for the second time. Held in Tijuana, the debate comes ahead of the July 1 elections and will focus on issues of international challenges, such as immigration and commerce.
Populist candidate Andrea Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has maintained his 18% lead over previous front-runner Ricardo Anaya, who maintains a coalition of three parties from the right and left. The ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party’s candidate, Jose Antonio Meade, has declined in the polls after a disappointing performance at last month’s debate.
Do not expect this debate to dramatically shift voter preference in a way that will challenge AMLO’s lead. In the face of US President Donald Trump’s stance towards limiting Mexican immigration, AMLO will be able to leverage his nationalist agenda of cutting energy trade with the US in order to increase Mexico’s energy independence. Additionally, his election could fuel either an intense revision or erasure of NAFTA. Anaya may be able to gain ground if he is able to convince voters that a “Mexico First” foreign policy will revert the country to its troubled period of authoritarianism.