Bolivian presidential primaries begin with inclusion of President Morales

Bolivia holds the first round of presidential primaries today, October’s general election. President Evo Morales will contest the primary, following court approval last year to seek a fourth term.

Morales has been in power for over 13 years, first elected in 2005, with re-elections in 2009 and 2014. The court decision comes despite a constitutional ban and a referendum result against such a move. He is widely credited by the World Bank and IMF with strengthening the country’s economy to annual growth of over 5% per annum and halving extreme poverty.

However, his efforts to win an unprecedented fourth term in office have overshadowed these accomplishments. A growing majority view the court decision as a considerable violation of popular will, which has raised questions about the stability of Bolivia’s separation of powers.

Centre-right Ex-President Carlos Mesa is expected to be the opposition front-runner against Morales, with early polling showing them tied at 27% in the first round of voting. Second-round polling shows Mesa beating Morales, primarily based on the 52% of the country that voted against Morales’ proposed constitutional reforms. Mesa’s biggest difficulty in the primary and general election is attracting left-leaning Morales opponents who form a sizable portion of the electorate. Morales is expected to retain significant popular support as the incumbent president, but the ability of the opposition to rally around Mesa shouldn’t be underestimated.