Geopolitics newsletter | November 13-19
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum concludes in San Francisco
The United States hosted the forum for the first time since 2011. Leaders from the 21-member Asia-Pacific economic cooperation group met to discuss ways to spur trade and boost economic growth across the Pacific region.
The meeting took place amid strained relations between China and the United States. Several events have increased tensions in recent years, including then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan following the 2021 APEC summit, a diplomatic incident involving a high-altitude Chinese balloon flying over US airspace, China’s support for Russia amid the Ukraine invasion and China’s increasing assertiveness in the Taiwan strait.
Observers awaited a side-line meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as it was the first time the two leaders met since November 2022. Both presidents agreed to continue dialogue on military and artificial intelligence, as well as boost exchanges in the anti-drug, commercial, and cultural domains. Their meeting concluded with new commitments for Beijing to crack down on the flow of fentanyl and re-engage in communications between the two nations’ militaries.
The meeting was hailed as successful, with President Biden highlighting discussions as “constructive and productive”. However, progress was quickly overshadowed, as Biden referred to Xi as a dictator at the end of a news conference. In response, China’s foreign minister said it “strongly opposes” the remarks, describing his comment as erroneous. Read more.
Indo-Pacific Geopolitics
Taiwanese opposition presidential candidate scheduled to be announced – Nov. 18
Despite expectations, the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) were unable to agree on the presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The two rival parties had recently formed a coalition and were due to release the poll results for candidates on Saturday but were unable to agree on the statistical method for looking at polling. Read more.
Australia criticizes China for “unsafe and unprofessional” naval interaction – Nov. 18
The interaction between an Australian naval vessel and Chinese warship left Australian military divers injured. Defense Minister Richard Marles said the HMAS Toowoomba, a long-range frigate, was conducting a diving operation in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone earlier this week to clear fishing nets from its propellers when the incident occurred. Read more. [EXTERNAL]
Diplomacy / Defense / Security
Russia hosts the International Cultural Forum in St. Petersburg – Nov. 16
The forum, dubbed a cultural event, brought together thousands of cultural experts, including prominent artists, government officials, business leaders, and academics. The event tests the limits of Russia’s international reach, particularly in the cultural sector, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Read more.
Kenyan High Court holds hearing on its police in Haiti – Nov. 16
Kenya previously agreed to lead a UN-sponsored mission to assist Haitian law enforcement in fighting against increasing gang violence within the country. Last week, however, several Kenyan officials expressed skepticism about the project and determined they would not send their police to Haiti unless the UN committed to the mission by providing sufficient funding and developing training programs for Kenyan policemen. Read more.
Society / Politics
Thousands protest against amnesty for Catalan separatists in Spain – Nov. 18
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez reached an agreement with separatist parties to establish a minority coalition government this week after developing an amnesty deal to garner political support. Protests against the amnesty broke out across Spain. Read more.
US government avoids shutdown – Nov. 16
After passing a stopgap bill through the House of Representatives, the Senate passed the bill, temporarily averting a shutdown that would have damaged the economy. However, Congress has yet to reach a government-wide spending agreement, which it must do by April to avoid an automatic 1% cut in spending. Read more.
The first round of Madagascar’s presidential election ends – Nov. 16
Madagascar’s president Andry Rajoelina took an expected lead amid an election marked by low turnout and an opposition boycott. The opposition claimed that Rajoelina should not have run again as he acquired French nationality in 2014, which they say automatically revokes his Malagasy citizenship, therefore establishing unfair election conditions. Read more.
Looking Ahead
Second-round Argentine presidential election second round run-off will take place – Nov. 19
Economy Minister Sergio Massa and far-right candidate Javier Milei will face off amid heightened political polarization and continued economic deterioration. Protests and unrest are expected to ensue immediately after election day. Read more. [EXTERNAL]
Dutch general election to take place – Nov. 22
The election, which was meant to take place in 2025, will occur early after the government resigned back in July due to a dispute over immigration policy. Read more. [EXTERNAL]
OPEC ministerial meeting to occur – Nov. 26
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting will take place in Vienna, where participants will discuss oil production output, including quotas. Read more. [EXTERNAL]
Contributions by Madeline McQuillan
