Geopolitics newsletter | Jan. 29 – Feb. 5
RADAR SWEEP
Geopolitics Newsletter Jan. 29 – Feb. 5 2024
Myanmar marks three years of military coup as internal security worsens
January 31 marked three years since Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, launched a coup against the civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi following the 2020 elections.
After Suu Kyi led her party to a landslide election in 2020, the Tatmadaw, led by General Min Aung Hlaing launched a coup to overthrow the government. A primary reason for the coup was the Tatmadaw’s fear that it would lose dominance over Myanmar’s political system under a majority government led by Suu Kyi. The 2020 elections were only the second partially free vote in the country, following the 2015 elections. For much of its post-independence history, Myanmar has been led by a military junta, although the country democratized incrementally in the 2010s.
Despite the Tatmadaw’s dominant role over Myanmar, it has faced defeats against numerous guerilla armies across the country. Many ethnic armed groups, commonly known as People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), have formed throughout Myanmar and are especially powerful in the country’s northern and western regions, along borders with China and Thailand.
A notable setback for the Tatmadaw happened last October in Shan state when an alliance of opposition groups seized Tatmadaw’s military assets and took control of many strategic Chinese border crossings and key roads. This has threatened to cut off the junta from its key military and economic partners, also triggering a wave of desertion from the army.
While the US and most of its allies have condemned the coup and imposed sanctions on the military junta, China has been more supportive of the military government. Nevertheless, a change in China’s policy can be noticed, especially in the aftermath of the losses suffered by the Tatmadaw late last year. China is currently trying to mediate between the junta and the various guerilla forces, mostly out of a desire to avoid a conflict at its border.
Indo-Pacific Geopolitics
Marcos Jr. pays first state visit to Vietnam – Jan. 29
Filipino President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. visited Vietnam to discuss deeper cooperation in the agriculture sector and in maritime operations. Closer naval collaboration between the two countries emerges amid aggressive posturing from China in the South China Sea. Read more
US and South Korea concluded Senior Economic Dialogue – Jan. 31
US Undersecretary for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Jose Fernandez hosted the Eighth Senior Economic Dialogue (SED) in South Korea. Talks focused on the impact of the American Inflation Reduction Act on South Korean trade and industry, as well as broadening Washington and Seoul’s economic partnership. Read more
India announced its interim budget – Jan. 31
Indian Financial Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced India’s interim budget on January 31. The interim will remain in effect until March 31, 2024, after which government spending will be restricted until the new government can set the official 2024-20205 budget. Read more
Indian Ocean Regional Decade Conference concludes – Feb. 3
Organized as part of the Decade Collaborative Centre for the Indian Ocean Region (DCC-IOR), the conference is a prelude to the Ocean Decade conference scheduled for April this year. Originally proposed by the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) to align itself with the UN’s ocean-related sustainability framework, this conference aimed to facilitate discussion between IOR stakeholders and the Ocean Decade coordination committees of the region. Read more
Politics and Society
Georgian PM Garibashvili steps down – Feb. 1
Georgian PM Irakli Garibashvili stepped down this week amid corruption allegations. Despite his resignation, he is expected to retain significant influence within the ruling Georgian Dream party. The announcement came as his rival, former PM Bidzina Ivanishvili, returned to politics and became the honorary chair of Georgian Dream. Read more
EU holds special session on Ukraine aid package – Feb. 1
European Union leaders met in Brussels to discuss a proposed nearly USD 54 billion funding package for Ukraine. Despite repeated cash infusions by the EU, Ukraine still faces a budget shortfall. The discussions came amidst rising discontent among EU leadership over Hungarian PM Viktor Orban’s repeated attempts to block EU funding for Ukraine. Read more
Diplomacy
Hungarian, Ukrainian foreign ministers meet in Western Ukraine – Jan. 29
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto met with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba ahead of a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Kuleba and Zelenskyy are expected to attempt to persuade Szijjarto to support an upcoming military aid package for Ukraine. Read more
Iranian foreign minister visits Pakistan following restoration of diplomatic relations – Jan. 29
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Pakistan after diplomatic relations between the two countries were restored following a series of tit-for-tat attacks. Although the situation was de-escalated, the recent attacks indicate shifting dynamics in the region, with the US reconsidering Pakistan’s role in strategic calculations. Read more
Macron concludes Sweden trip – Jan. 31
French President Emmanuel Macron concluded a two-day trip to Sweden as Sweden finalizes its accession to NATO. Discussions are expected to lay the framework for cooperation between the two countries within NATO, with Sweden as a source for fighter jets and tanks. Read more
Defense and Security
Informal meetings of EU defense ministers conclude – Jan. 31
Defense ministers from EU member states informally met to discuss security challenges and regional defense concerns. Topics on the agenda included the ongoing conflict in Gaza and attacks by the Houthis on vessels in the Red Sea. In response to Houthi attacks, the EU aims to bolster its presence in the Middle East. Read more
Planning meeting concludes ahead of African Lion 2024 – Feb. 2
The Moroccan Royal Armed Forces and the United States Armed Forces held a meeting ahead of the multinational African Lion military exercises. This year’s edition of the African Lion drills takes place as US influences steadily wane in the region, as military-run governments in West Africa develop warmer ties with Russia. Read more
Finance, Economics, and Technology
US Federal Reserve holds its first 2024 meeting – Jan. 30
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) held its first meeting of 2024 on Tuesday. Amid continued economic and job growth, the Fed decided to maintain the interest rate at its current level of 5.5%, which is the highest level in 22 years. Some economists predict that rate cuts will be adopted later this year. Read more
Senior Economic Dialogue (SED) talks begin between US, South Korea – Jan. 31
US Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Jose Hernandez hosted the eighth Senior Economic Dialogue (SED) in South Korea this week. The discussions focused on topics such as critical minerals, semiconductors, and energy security, as well as the economic impact of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. Read more
The Week Ahead
Argentine President Milei to visit Israel – Feb. 6
Argentine President Javier Milei will visit Israel on February 5 as part of a week-long diplomatic tour with additional stops in Italy and the Vatican. This is Milei’s first trip since his election victory in December 2023, which empowered his right-wing libertarian government to reduce inflation. He closely supports right-wing governments in Italy and Israel. Read more
Kenyan President Ruto visits Japan – Feb. 6
Kenyan President William Ruto is scheduled to visit Japan on February 5 to meet with Emperor Naruhito and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This is a follow-up to Kishida’s visit to Kenya in May 2023 and is designed to foster trade and infrastructure investment between the two partners. Read more
Azerbaijan presidential elections begin – Feb. 7
Snap presidential elections will be held in Azerbaijan on February 7. Originally scheduled for 2025, President Ilham Aliyev called for early elections after consolidating control of the Karabakh region and the dissolution of Artsakh boosted his popularity. With opposition suppressed he is all but guaranteed to win reelection. Read more
Contributions by: Wescott Yeaw, Tudor Boanda, Andrew Alipui, and Scott Benigno
