Geopolitics newsletter | Feb. 5 – 12
RADAR SWEEP
Geopolitics Newsletter Feb. 5 – 12 2024
Ukraine and Israel aid bill makes slow progress in US Congress
A $93.34 billion bill that encompasses aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan made progress in the US Senate on Feb. 8. The pivot came shortly after Republicans blocked compromise legislation that included a long-anticipated regulation of immigration policy. Senators adopted a procedural motion in support of the new bill with a 7-vote margin, enabling the upper chamber to consider the bill. Seventeen Republicans voted in favor of advancing the legislation, a surprising turn after they halted the broader bill on Feb. 7.
The bill includes $61 billion for Ukraine as it battles Russia, $14 billion for Israel in the war against Hamas, and $4.83 billion to support allies in the Indo-Pacific, including, most notably, Taiwan, and hamper aggression by China. The bill would also provide humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza and the West Bank.
Many view the move as a positive first step for national security, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called it a move in the right direction, towards a Ukrainian victory and for shared security. Supporters of Ukraine aid have insisted that Washington align with its global allies to send a unified message to Russia. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made such efforts on his trip to Washington this week.
However, even if the bill passes the Senate, its future is uncertain in the House of Representatives. Many Republican House members, specifically those allied with former US President Donald Trump, have voted against Ukraine aid. Some Republicans are still seeking to make changes, including advocating for stricter border security policies and also altering the foreign aid portions of the legislation.
Indo-Pacific Geopolitics
Defense ministers of South Korea and Qatar meet in Doha – Feb. 5
South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik met with his Qatari counterpart Khalid bin Mohammad Al Attiyah. The two met amid increased tensions on the Korean peninsula, with North Korea testing cruise missiles and President Yoon Suk Yeol taking a hardline stance against North Korean President Kim Jong-Un. South Korea has worked to gain a footing in the international arms market in the past year to counter North Korean aggression. Read more.
Kenyan president arrives in Japan – Feb. 6
Kenyan President William Ruto embarked on a state visit to Japan, engaging in diplomatic meetings and discussions. During the four-day trip, Ruto met with the Japanese emperor and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, emphasizing mutual interests in economic cooperation and infrastructure development. Japan’s longstanding partnership with Kenya has facilitated significant investments in the transportation, health, agriculture, and education sectors. Kenya’s support for Japan’s “free and open Indo-Pacific” vision, contrasting China’s dominance, has strengthened the countries’ regional alliance. Read more
India and Saudi Arabia conclude first joint military exercise – Feb. 10
The Sada Tanseeq exercise began on Jan. 29th and lasted 12 days. It was aimed at strengthening interoperability between the Indian Army and the Royal Saudi Land Force. Read more.
Diplomacy, Defense, and Security
Kenyan government cracks down on short-term rental properties amid rise in femicide – Feb. 5
The Kenyan government initiated a crackdown on unregistered short-term accommodation companies, including Airbnb. Operators were mandated to register with the Tourism Regulatory Authority (TRA) to address security concerns following a surge in femicidal killings. Recent killings, of, among others Rita Waeni, 20, and Scarlet Wahu Mwangi, 24, in Airbnbs, sparked nationwide protests. Read more.
Argentinian president visits Israel – Feb. 5
Argentinian President Javier Milei embarked on a one-week international trip, visiting Israel, Italy, and the Vatican. During his time in Israel, Milei aimed to demonstrate strong support for the Israeli government amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. His intention to convert to Judaism adds symbolic significance to the trip and may garner political support from Jewish communities in Argentina and beyond. Read more
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with US President Joe Biden – Feb. 8
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveled to Washington, D.C. to meet with US President Joe Biden. The two leaders discussed continued tensions in the Middle East and the Ukraine war. President Biden has struggled to follow the EU’s footsteps in approving more aid for Ukraine after Republicans recently blocked a White House request for a $60 million package. Read more.
National Politics and Society
Pakistan deploys 5,000 police officers to monitor polling stations ahead of elections – Feb. 7
Islamabad’s capital police requested 5,000 extra personnel for election security. The move follows the IMF’s approval of a $700 million payment to Pakistan. With former PM Imran Khan incarcerated and most nominations from his PTI party rejected, some view this as a ‘selection’ rather than an election. Amidst security concerns stemming from recent Pakistan-Iran military exchanges, expect further IMF talks post-elections for funding, especially if the centrist PMLN wins, necessitating swift economic stabilization efforts. Read more.
Istanbul holds mayoral election – Feb. 8
Turkey’s People’s Equality and Democracy Party (HEDEP) revealed its candidate for the Istanbul mayoral elections, amid incumbent Ekrem Imamoglu’s bid for re-election. The opposition alliance’s fragmentation and voter disillusionment post-general election loss pose challenges for Imamoglu. HEDEP’s departure risks weakening his support, potentially benefiting AKP’s Murat Kurum. Read more.
Russian Elections Commission postpones final decision on Nadezhdin’s candidacy – Feb. 9
Presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin was banned from Russian elections this week by the Central Election Committee (CEC) of Russia. The opposition candidate had garnered support throughout Europe with his vocal anti-war stance. Russian citizens will choose next month among the four remaining candidates, including incumbent President Vladimir Putin. Should Putin win re-election for a fifth term, he would remain in power until 2030. Read more.
Finance
German and Mongolian presidents met in Mongolia – Feb. 7
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier embarked on a two-day trip to Mongolia. Steinmeier met with counterpart Khurelsukh Ukhnaa to discuss deepening economic and security ties. The visit is seen as an attempt by Germany to build its influence in Central Asian countries to challenge historical Russian influence. Read more.
Canadian Auto Theft summit begins – Feb. 9
Ottawa hosted the National Summit on Combatting Auto Theft, organized by the Canadian government in response to escalating theft rates. In late January, the federal government pledged $121 million over five years to tackle gun violence, gang activity, and auto theft in Ontario, a move praised by property and casualty insurers. With auto theft disproportionately affecting Ontario, PM Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party aims to address voter concerns about crime to regain political ground. Read more.
The Week Ahead
World Governments Summit to begin in Dubai – Feb. 12
The World Governments Summit will take place this Monday to identify innovative solutions for future challenges. The event includes more than 120 governmental delegations and the topics for debate include macroeconomic challenges, youth, social cohesion, and the growing role of the Middle East in international politics. [External]
Indonesia presidential elections to be held – Feb. 14
Indonesia presidential elections will take place next Wednesday between current Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo from the majority ruling party PDI-P, and the former governor of Jakarta, Anies Baswedan. Expect Subianto to lead the elections. His running partner, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is the eldest son of Indonesia’s current president. Prabowo is expected to focus on economic growth, while Baswedan, the most likely contestant, is framed as a seasoned politician who is pushing for deeper social assistance programs. [External]
Munich Security Conference (MSC) to take place – Feb. 16 – 18
The independent forum will gather policymakers to discuss critical international security issues, such as major conflicts and escalating threats. Ukraine will likely be the leading topic. [External]
Contributions by: Madeline McQuillan and Alex Rannou
