The Trump administration is unlikely to pull out of the Iran deal this week but will undermine it
President Trump will begin deliberating whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran today, possibly unequivocally violating the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal.
Although Trump extended sanctions relief in October even as he decertified Iran’s compliance with the deal, a recent spike in tensions could result in a change in tack. The Trump administration has publicly backed those protesting against the Islamic Republic over the past 10 days, and last week sanctioned five ballistic missile-related companies in Iran.
At the same time, the administration is involved in bipartisan talks with congressional leaders to codify US involvement in the nuclear deal, which would prevent Trump from spiking the deal in the short-term.
With the legislative negotiations underway, the administration appears to be maintaining its current strategy of technically adhering to the deal while publicly denouncing it. Expect the White House to double down on non-nuclear sanctions and generate enough uncertainty to dampen investor confidence in Iran, hindering its economic recovery and further straining relations.
Delve deeper: The Iranian nuclear deal and people-to-people diplomacy
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