Lebanon begins its 2022 parliamentary elections today. Candidates from 15 districts will compete to fill 128 seats in parliament. Former
Lebanon begins its 2022 parliamentary elections today.
Candidates from 15 districts will compete to fill 128 seats in parliament. Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri has been barred from the election, causing outrage among his Sunni supporters who will likely abstain from voting.
Expect little substantive change to follow the elections. The ruling Hezbollah and Amal parties are likely to continue exercising violence and intimidation against their political opponents. Reports of political suppression have been recorded in the northern Beqaa and southern Sarafand regions.
By undermining opponents, the ruling parties are likely to dominate the results in the Shia stronghold south. However, a national change in the majority is possible as the opposition only needs seven additional seats to oust Hezbollah. This scenario would shift regional balance as Iran would lose an allied government in Hezbollah and potentially the rights to station its weapons in Lebanon.
In the long term, citizens will continue to blame the current political class for bankrupting the government and spurring Lebanon’s economic decline for the past two years. This trend will likely persist after the Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections uncovered funds used by several different parties to pay bribes and other donations to boost performance in today’s elections.
Download the Daily Brief app to stay ahead of geopolitics with daily, short, forward-looking analysis of geopolitical events before they hit the headlines.