Poland will go to the polls today to elect 460 members to the lower house and 100 senators to the
Poland will go to the polls today to elect 460 members to the lower house and 100 senators to the upper house.
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s ruling ultra-conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) is expected to comfortably win the largest share of the vote. Polling suggests PiS will gain at least 231 seats, maintaining plurality but falling just short of a majority.
Since coming to power in 2015, PiS has struck electoral gold through a combination of big spending on generous social programmes and strong economic growth—last year the economy grew 5.1%.
However, the spending programs rely on ongoing growth, which may be threatened due to the threat of a recession in Germany—Poland’s most important trade partner, accounting for 27% of exports.
Based on 3.7% annual growth projections, the government is likely to run a tighter economic ship in the next term. Should that figure prove lower, PiS will likely increase debt rather than cut social spending to avoid alienating its working class rural base. Debt is already relatively high at 140% of GDP so future governments cannot afford to let it grow if economic growth stagnates.