Ukraine’s Trilateral Contact Group to discuss ceasefire violations

The Trilateral Contact Group for the Peaceful Settlement of the Conflict in Donbas (TCG) is scheduled to meet today via videoconference.

TCG parties—Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)—will evaluate the enhanced ceasefire measures agreed upon in July and discuss other questions, such as de-mining and access to international aid. The OSCE and Ukraine have been pushing for full, unconditional access for international organisations.

To date, ceasefire measures have been highly ineffective—the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission’s (SMM) recorded at least 6,300 violations of the agreements since July. It is highly unlikely that any agreement reached during this meeting will reduce the number of violations in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Expect more substantial discussion on access to international organisations to eastern Ukraine. The COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with disruption of basic services including running water, has created a massive humanitarian catastrophe in the region. Ukraine and the OSCE have pushed Russia and pro-Russian separatist leaders to allow international organisations to provide humanitarian aid to the region. It is likely that some sort of aid will be allowed into the region but in what shape or form depends most likely on Russia.