Brazil to release 4th quarter GDP growth rate

Brazil is expected to release its fourth quarter GDP growth from 2020, reflecting strong growth at the end of last year.

The nation’s GDP is expected to grow 7.7% this quarter, although it will remain 4.5% down from the fourth quarter in 2019. The growth, which began in the third quarter, reflects the beginnings of recovery from the shock the COVID-19 downturn imposed on South America’s largest economy.

However, Brasilia’s outlook for 2021 has darkened in recent days even as many analysts project strong growth this year. The more infectious COVID-19 P1 variant, first identified in Brazil in January, has caused new infections and death rates to surge; the country registered over 8,000 deaths last week.

Expect the newly increased spread of COVID-19 to reduce economic activity and slow the country’s recovery; the central bank has already registered a small 0.64% increase in business activity for December 2020. President Jair Bolsonaro’s recent active interference in the economy, including replacing the CEO of federal oil firm Petrobras, is likely to spook private companies and could convince them to delay planned investments. Furthermore, stalled talks in Congress on economic stimulus are likely to hinder chances at recovery.