A proposed Russian-brokered agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia will establish a commission to help define the Armenia-Azerbaijan border today.
Leaked to the Armenian public, the agreement intends to determine and open shared borders, some of which remain unmarked since the USSR’s 1991 collapse. Tensions between the states remain high following a 44-day war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory, and were recently further inflamed after acting Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan alleged 500 Azerbaijani troops crossed into Armenian territory. Pashinyan stated that he will only sign the agreement after the troops withdraw.
Expect the commission to first focus on marking the borders of Syunik and Gegharkunik, where Azerbaijani troops crossed into Armenia. Given Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov’s public support for the agreement, as well as Russian pressure, Azerbaijan will likely withdraw its troops to allow the commission to proceed.
Azerbaijan is now in firm control of seven districts it reclaimed during the war, and the commission will likely define the borders to affirm Azerbaijani sovereignty. As the loser, Armenia likely cannot return to the pre-war status quo without further conflict. The most it can hope for is the recognition of its remaining territorial sovereignty, which is feasible given Russian support.
Wake up smarter with an assessment of the stories that will make headlines in the next 24 hours. Download The Daily Brief.
Jon is a Content Editor and Analyst within the Analysis division of Foreign Brief.