Madagascar will inaugurate Andry Rajoelina as President today.
Earlier this month, the High Constitutional Court confirmed that the incumbent Rajoelina won the 2023 election with 58.9% of votes in his favor. The election results were rejected by the “collectif des 10” who sought to boycott the election claiming Rajoelina was ineligible to become president due to allegations of Rajoelina acquiring French citizenship back in 2014.
In addition, political unrest and claims of unjust elections have been raised as the Tanora Malagasy Vonona ruling party has been in power since the 2009 coup, holding office for the third consecutive time. However, opposition in the country is highly fragmented and lacks a consolidated opposition.
In the short term, expect protests ahead of the inauguration this weekend. As most of the candidates refused to accept the results, opposition gatherings are expected nationwide. However, expect other countries to acknowledge the results. China’s special envoy, as well as African countries’ representatives, will attend the inauguration. In the medium term, political instability is likely to continue if Madagascar is unable to address rampant poverty which is estimated at around 80%. President Rajoelina is likely to continue his economic agenda to promote agricultural and industrial development with a special focus on rice production. As a consequence, in the long term, expect the ruling party to consolidate its power and reduce social unrest by raising investment with SADC members and China to harness development opportunities that tackle rampant poverty and instability.
Alex is an analyst and writes for the Daily Brief.