NATO signatories to Open Skies Treaty to meet Russian delegates regarding Russian withdrawal
The Open Skies Consultative Commission, based in Vienna, will convene today to discuss Russia’s withdrawal from the Treaty on Open Skies (OST).
The Commission is the implementing authority for the OST, which aims to lessen misunderstanding-driven conflict by permitting unarmed surveillance flights between signatories. Citing Russian unwillingness to permit flyovers of Chechnya, the US withdrew from the OST in November. Earlier this month, Russia initiated its withdrawal from the treaty, arguing that the US’ withdrawal “unbalanced” the treaty while NATO signatories could still share information gleaned from surveillance flights over Russia with the US.
Expect representatives of NATO OST signatories to urge Russia to reconsider withdrawal today. Though immediate reversal from Moscow is improbable since Russia’s withdrawal was motivated by the US’. if Washington ultimately rejoins the agreement, expect Russia to reconsider withdrawing. Though US President Joe Biden previously denounced the US’ withdrawal, the treaty’s re-ratification faces long odds in a divided Senate.
If Washington does not rejoin the OST, expect Europe to seek assurances of US reliability absent established security arrangements, with states such as Lithuania likely to increase defense expenditures. Meanwhile, Russia will likely pressure allies such as Belarus to also withdraw from the treaty.
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