Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble will chair a meeting of cabinet and regional officials today in hope of reaching an agreement over planned elections.
Somalia currently teeters on the verge of civil war due to President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s attempts to cling to power. Although his term ended in February, Farmaajo rejected holding elections, convincing parliament to extend his mandate for an additional two years. Despite parliament’s decree, the outbreak of political violence and the army’s refusal to accept an extension of his term forced Farmaajo and parliament to change tune and promise imminent elections.
Expect the Somali opposition to force Farmaajo from power in the medium-term. Having lost the trust of the public and the army, Farmaajo’s political survival is unlikely. Expect political volatility to remain heightened, however, with Farmaajo’s control over Somalia’s security services constituting a cause for concern. Out of options, Farmaajo may seek to intimidate voters or outright rig the vote. This could trigger a fresh wave of unrest, potentially leading to a military coup or another civil war. Expect intermittent violence to continue in the short-term, with the result of the election likely to determine the trajectory of Somalia’s political stability.
Wake up smarter with an assessment of the stories that will make headlines in the next 24 hours. Download The Daily Brief.
Sinan is an analyst for the Current Developments Team and a regular contributor to the Daily Brief. A student of transatlantic affairs, he specialises in political, economic and energy affairs of Europe and the Middle East.