The UN’s top Libya negotiator Stephanie Williams will today present a briefing on the current state of Libyan ceasefire talks to the UN Security Council.
Williams announced on Sunday that the conflict’s two rival factions have decided on December 24, 2021, as the date for the country’s next nationwide elections. The selection criteria for the Presidential Council and prime minister is yet to be determined. Though these developments mark significant progress, much depends on whether the two sides’ foreign backers remain committed to terminating military support.
It seems unlikely that the UAE and Turkey, which back opposing sides, will back down, especially not before seeing the other do so. The UAE has received little backlash for inciting General Khalifa Haftar to walk away from the Berlin Conference in January and later continuing to interfere militarily on his behalf—this is partly due to its strong relations with Europe and the US. Without pressure from the UN, the UAE will likely continue to back Haftar. Meanwhile, its regional rival Turkey, which has more at stake in Libya due to its economic investments and the maritime demarcation deal with the officially-recognised government, is unlikely to be satisfied with a ceasefire agreement that excludes its own role as a mediator.
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Esra is an analyst on the Current Developments division and a member of The Daily Brief’s research team. She specialises in political and security issues with a particular focus on the Middle East and North Africa.